投資基本功(十一) - 投行分析報告可信度

想跟大家講講投行分析報告和其他網上股票意見的可信程度。

今次的個案分析我會用lululemon。它是一家加拿大瑜伽服飾用品專門店，現時在美國正風行一時，有很多女性用家追隨者。隨着瑜伽運動在國際間興起，lululemon乘着健康生活的潮流，成為過去估值偏高的股壇新貴。



在今年九月初lululemon宣佈了它2016年第二季度業績，雖然盈利比上年同期升13.6% ,可是分析員認為運動休閑服的潮流已是過去式，將會被新興起的牛仔復熱潮蓋過，於是lululemon的股價應聲下挫近30% ,跌至23倍市盈率的低位。以一家盈利有雙位數字增長，毛利率達46%的企業來說，這個市盈率水平是很吸引的。

可是有九月初至12月初這三個月期間，投行的分析員不停唱淡這隻股票。大家可以看看以下相關消息：

Goldman Sachs analyst Drucker Mann gave Lululemon a “sell” rating and a $46 target price.

A shift from yoga pants may leave Lululemon Athletica investors in a sweat
6 Dec 2016

Pointing to evidence from apparel trade shows that consumers are shifting away from athleisure and toward denim, Canaccord analyst Camilo Lyon last week downgraded Lululemon’s stock to “sell” from “hold.”

Mizuho Securities analyst Betty Chen, who recently cut her price target for Lululemon to US$60 from US$68, said women are favoring ripped and distressed jeans as well as “retro” athletic styles from Adidas and Puma.

“We see shoppers buying it and wearing it. You can also see a lot of it online through bloggers, and a lot of the young celebrities are wearing it,” Chen said.

Lululemon Athletica Stock Could Sag
5 Dec 2016

In the last six months, shares of Lululemon Athletica (LULU) are down 18%. The company reports third-quarter results on Wednesday. I think its a stretch to think the stock will go higher.

到12月7日，lululemon公布第三季到業績，盈利增長13% ,超出市場預期。股價同日急升15%。

之後所有之前不遺餘力唱淡這隻股票的分析員立刻180度轉呔，對這隻股票發出「買入」的評級。有一位Mizuho securities 瑞穗分析員Betty Chen，簡直是今日的我打倒昨日的我，之前還說女士現在都喜愛穿破爛牛仔褲，年輕的明星、博客都在穿，運動休閑服是out 了。業績公布後，這位女士好像對自己之前講的說話完全失憶，她說lululemon有着健康的銷售增長，業務擴充和毛利率增長，所以她認為估值仍有增長的空間。態度轉變之徹底令人眼界大開。



Lululemon, Juniper, AMD Upgraded
8 Dec 2016
Mizuho upgraded shares of the yoga-wear company to buy from neutral, boosting its price target to 78 from 60, while Evercore ISI upgraded the stock to buy from sell.

"With a rare combination of comp gains, store growth, and margin expansion, we expect the stock to trade at a premium valuation," wrote Mizuho analyst Betty Chen.

Lululemon: Stay Long!
9 Dec 2016
RBC’s Brian Tunick and Kate Fitzsimons urge investors to “stay long” shares of Lululemon Athletica (LULU) despite yesterday’s 15% earnings-inspired gain.

結論是投行的分析報告大家不用太理會。雖然投行裏有措施防止分析員唱好投行已持有的股票，但投行裏不同業務的瓜葛千絲萬縷，at best分析員的意見只是看得不準，at worst實在是利用報告操控市場，以達致自己的盈利目的。

利申：筆者在第三季業績公布前持有lululemon一個月多，現已全數賣出。對，筆者真金白銀不信專家賺了點小錢。

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