基金公司請的基金經理都是最頂尖的金融人才，為甚麼研究往往顯示他們表現只是和指數差不多，甚至跑輸大市？為甚麼連基金經理也不能做到跑贏大市，我卻叫你們去自己分析買股票？讓我跟大家分享一下基金經理的心底話。
今天我的基金經理朋友跟我說他管理的組合蝕了一鋪勁的，足足是他一年的人工。我問他，你買了甚麼。他說是一間沒有上市的民企的債券。我十分驚訝，問為甚麼這個時候還買這些債券。他說，你別跟我老闆說一樣的話。他說買的時候有7厘多的yield，而這一只債券已經是在同一個yield 裏是最好的，其他大公司的債券只有5厘多。我說，只是2厘spread，值得冒這個險嗎？他說基金是有追逐yield 的壓力的。我立刻明白了。誠然，我們見股票價高，會售出並持有現金，等待下一次跌市再入貨。巴菲特的拍檔Charlie Munger 也說過﹕
Experience tends to confirm a long-held notion that being prepared, on a few occasions in a lifetime, to act promptly in scale, in doing some simple and logical thing, will often dramatically improve the financial results of that lifetime. A few major opportunities, clearly recognizable as such, will usually come to one who continuously searches and waits, with a curious mind that loves diagnosis involving multiple variables. And then all that is required is a willingness to bet heavily when the odds are extremely favorable, using resources available as a result of prudence and patience in the past.
所以照理說，我們很長時間都是持有現金/流動資產去等人生只有幾次的機會去贏一鋪勁的。可是基金經理可不能告訴客戶﹕”雖然我的基金以往幾年平均回報均高於10%，不過現在資金泛濫，資產價格偏高，我打算持有現金去等待下一次入市機會。所以這幾年我的基金平均回報將會只剩下2-3%。”如果基金經理這樣說，我想客戶會立刻跑掉，第二天已經再沒有可以管理的資金了。雖然證監不停告訴大家投資產品過往表現並不反映未來走勢，不過我想連機構投資者也未必聽進耳裏。
那麼基金經理每天做的只可以是根據投資者的回報要求和基金的限制，看看市場上有甚麼符合條件的資產去買入。但是近幾年各國大印銀紙下，全球所有資產價格上脹，回報驟跌。如果要保持一樣的回報率，基金經理買的資產的質素會越來越低，風險越來越高，令他們沒有選擇的餘地。這令我身邊為資金做專業投資決定的朋友十分頭痛。
除此之外，在Intelligent Investor 一書裏，Benjamin Graham 還提到基金經理面對旳以下限制﹕
- With billions of dollars under management, they must gravitate toward the biggest stocks - the only ones they can buy in the multimillion-dollar quantities they need to fill their portfolios. Thus many funds end up owning the same few overpriced giants.
- Investors tend to pour more money into funds as the market rises. The managers use that new cash to buy more of the stocks they already own, driving prices to even more dangerous heights.
- If fund investors ask for their money back when the market drops, the managers may need to sell stocks to cash them out. Just as the funds are forced to buy stocks at inflated prices in a rising market, they become forced sellers as stocks get cheap again.
- Many portfolio managers get bonuses for beating the market, so they obsessively measure their returns against benchmarks like the S&P 500 Index. If a company gets added to an index, hundreds of funds compulsively buy it. (If they don't, and that stock then does well, the managers look foolish; on the other hand, if they buy it and it does poorly, no one will blame them.)
- Increasingly, fund managers are expected to specialize. Just as in medicine the general practitioner has given way to the pediatric allergist and the geriatric otolaryngologist, fund managers must buy only "small growth" stocks, or only "mid-sized value" stocks, or nothing but "large blend" stocks. If a company gets too big, or too small, or too cheap, or an itty bit too expensive, the fund has to sell it - even if the manager loves the stock.
最後，我和我的基金經理朋友的結論是，千萬不要買基金(除了指數基金，因為它們沒有追逐回報的壓力)。嘿嘿﹗
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今天我的基金經理朋友跟我說他管理的組合蝕了一鋪勁的，足足是他一年的人工。我問他，你買了甚麼。他說是一間沒有上市的民企的債券。我十分驚訝，問為甚麼這個時候還買這些債券。他說，你別跟我老闆說一樣的話。他說買的時候有7厘多的yield，而這一只債券已經是在同一個yield 裏是最好的，其他大公司的債券只有5厘多。我說，只是2厘spread，值得冒這個險嗎？他說基金是有追逐yield 的壓力的。我立刻明白了。誠然，我們見股票價高，會售出並持有現金，等待下一次跌市再入貨。巴菲特的拍檔Charlie Munger 也說過﹕
Experience tends to confirm a long-held notion that being prepared, on a few occasions in a lifetime, to act promptly in scale, in doing some simple and logical thing, will often dramatically improve the financial results of that lifetime. A few major opportunities, clearly recognizable as such, will usually come to one who continuously searches and waits, with a curious mind that loves diagnosis involving multiple variables. And then all that is required is a willingness to bet heavily when the odds are extremely favorable, using resources available as a result of prudence and patience in the past.
所以照理說，我們很長時間都是持有現金/流動資產去等人生只有幾次的機會去贏一鋪勁的。可是基金經理可不能告訴客戶﹕”雖然我的基金以往幾年平均回報均高於10%，不過現在資金泛濫，資產價格偏高，我打算持有現金去等待下一次入市機會。所以這幾年我的基金平均回報將會只剩下2-3%。”如果基金經理這樣說，我想客戶會立刻跑掉，第二天已經再沒有可以管理的資金了。雖然證監不停告訴大家投資產品過往表現並不反映未來走勢，不過我想連機構投資者也未必聽進耳裏。
那麼基金經理每天做的只可以是根據投資者的回報要求和基金的限制，看看市場上有甚麼符合條件的資產去買入。但是近幾年各國大印銀紙下，全球所有資產價格上脹，回報驟跌。如果要保持一樣的回報率，基金經理買的資產的質素會越來越低，風險越來越高，令他們沒有選擇的餘地。這令我身邊為資金做專業投資決定的朋友十分頭痛。
除此之外，在Intelligent Investor 一書裏，Benjamin Graham 還提到基金經理面對旳以下限制﹕
- With billions of dollars under management, they must gravitate toward the biggest stocks - the only ones they can buy in the multimillion-dollar quantities they need to fill their portfolios. Thus many funds end up owning the same few overpriced giants.
- Investors tend to pour more money into funds as the market rises. The managers use that new cash to buy more of the stocks they already own, driving prices to even more dangerous heights.
- If fund investors ask for their money back when the market drops, the managers may need to sell stocks to cash them out. Just as the funds are forced to buy stocks at inflated prices in a rising market, they become forced sellers as stocks get cheap again.
- Many portfolio managers get bonuses for beating the market, so they obsessively measure their returns against benchmarks like the S&P 500 Index. If a company gets added to an index, hundreds of funds compulsively buy it. (If they don't, and that stock then does well, the managers look foolish; on the other hand, if they buy it and it does poorly, no one will blame them.)
- Increasingly, fund managers are expected to specialize. Just as in medicine the general practitioner has given way to the pediatric allergist and the geriatric otolaryngologist, fund managers must buy only "small growth" stocks, or only "mid-sized value" stocks, or nothing but "large blend" stocks. If a company gets too big, or too small, or too cheap, or an itty bit too expensive, the fund has to sell it - even if the manager loves the stock.
最後，我和我的基金經理朋友的結論是，千萬不要買基金(除了指數基金，因為它們沒有追逐回報的壓力)。嘿嘿﹗
投資入門基本功 - 目錄
想看更多? - Like 大投行小人物 - 投資基本功 Facebook專頁
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